Editorial

Indian politics is once again witnessing a familiar phenomenon—the politics of defections. From West Bengal to Maharashtra, reports of MPs shifting loyalties have dominated national headlines. While political migration is not new, the scale and timing of the current developments raise important questions about the future of opposition parties, the effectiveness of the Anti-Defection Law, and the changing nature of political power in India.

In West Bengal, the crisis within the Trinamool Congress appears to have deepened significantly. Reports suggest that nearly 19 to 20 Lok Sabha MPs have either expressed dissatisfaction with the leadership or are exploring the possibility of forming a separate parliamentary group. Rebel leaders are reportedly seeking recognition as the “real Trinamool” before the Lok Sabha Speaker. (The Economic Times⁠).

If these reports are accurate, the implications are enormous. The Trinamool Congress emerged from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as one of the largest opposition parties. A split involving nearly two-thirds of its MPs would fundamentally alter the parliamentary balance and weaken the opposition’s capacity to challenge the ruling alliance.

However, there is an important legal caveat. Many constitutional experts argue that the protection once available under the “split” provision no longer exists. The 91st Constitutional Amendment abolished the protection for one-third splits. Today, only a merger supported by at least two-thirds of legislators enjoys protection from disqualification. Even then, procedural and legal challenges remain. Therefore, the assumption that a group of MPs can automatically escape disqualification merely by claiming numerical strength may not be legally sustainable. (ThePrint⁠)

The situation in Maharashtra presents a striking parallel. Speculation surrounding “Operation Tiger” has intensified with reports that six of the nine Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs may join the faction led by Eknath Shinde. Letters are reportedly being prepared for submission to the Lok Sabha Speaker seeking recognition of a separate group. (The Times of India⁠)

The significance of the number six is not accidental. Under the anti-defection framework, six out of nine MPs constitute exactly two-thirds of the parliamentary strength of Shiv Sena (UBT) in the Lok Sabha. This would provide the legal threshold required to claim merger protection.

Yet, as in Bengal, the situation remains fluid. Only days earlier, Shiv Sena (UBT) leaders insisted that all nine MPs attended party meetings and denied reports of a rebellion. Conflicting claims from both camps indicate that political negotiations are still underway. (The Times of India⁠)

What is becoming increasingly clear is that Indian politics is entering a phase where elections alone do not determine power. Post-election engineering, strategic mergers, factional claims, and legislative arithmetic are becoming equally important.

This brings us to the pivotal role of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu.

Unlike Bengal and Maharashtra, neither leader is facing a rebellion. Their importance arises from their ability to influence the stability of the government at the Centre. Both leaders head regional parties with substantial parliamentary representation and possess decades of coalition experience.

Nitish Kumar remains perhaps the most adaptable politician in contemporary India. His political journey demonstrates an extraordinary ability to survive changing political currents. Chandrababu Naidu, meanwhile, has emerged as one of the most influential regional leaders in national politics. His bargaining power derives not merely from numbers but from his reputation as an administrator and strategist.

For the BJP-led NDA, maintaining good relations with both leaders remains essential. For the opposition, any future national challenge would also require their cooperation. Consequently, both leaders occupy a unique position as power brokers rather than mere allies.

The broader lesson from Bengal and Maharashtra is that political parties are increasingly vulnerable when leadership transitions, electoral setbacks, or internal rivalries emerge. The era when party loyalty could be taken for granted appears to be ending.

Yet caution is necessary. Political rumours often travel faster than political realities. Reports of 20 Trinamool MPs breaking away or six Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs joining another faction have generated headlines, but many such operations collapse at the final moment due to legal complications, public pressure, or internal negotiations. The final outcome will depend on whether the numbers hold when tested before the Speaker and, ultimately, before the courts.

What cannot be disputed is that Indian politics is undergoing another major transformation. Bengal and Maharashtra have become laboratories of political realignment. The coming weeks may determine whether these reports remain political speculation or evolve into one of the most significant parliamentary realignments since the enactment of the Anti-Defection Law.

In modern Indian politics, governments are no longer shaped only at the ballot box. Increasingly, they are also shaped in legislative corridors, Speaker’s chambers, and courtrooms. That reality may define the next chapter of India’s democratic journey.

• SAS Kirmani